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2024-12-13 04:36:03

Liang Zhonghua of Haitong Securities: The general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 has been determined, and the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst of Haitong Securities, said that judging from the statement of the meeting, the general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 is certain. Among them, "supernormal countercyclical adjustment" was put forward for the first time. Liang Zhonghua analyzed that "supernormal adjustment" may be different from QE (quantitative easing) in western countries, but refers to a traditional tool that has grown steadily in the past few years, making a breakthrough on the margin and playing the role of "keeping innovation" and "enriching and perfecting the policy toolbox". Judging from the policies that have been issued since September, this round of steady growth is a steady growth under the framework of "high quality". The high-quality framework will not change, and there will be no strong stimulation of flood irrigation. The meeting proposed to "implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy". Liang Zhonghua believes that next year's finance is expected to make further marginal efforts. It is expected that deficit ratio may improve. At present, 3.5%-4.0% is more likely, and the scale of special bonds may be marginally increased. Special government bonds supporting "duality" and "two innovations" will continue to be issued or increased. In addition, the debt-melting policy launched in November will also be the financial focus next year, and it is expected that special government bonds may be issued to supplement bank capital. In addition, the gradual interest rate cut will continue next year, and the structural monetary policy will continue to exert its strength. The meeting stressed that "it is necessary to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all directions." In this regard, Liang Zhonghua believes that compared with Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's statement of "expanding domestic demand with the focus on boosting consumption" in July, this meeting pays more attention to expanding domestic demand, and its support is expected to be further increased in the future. Since the beginning of this year, with the extra-long special national debt funds in place, the consumption of consumer goods trade-in policy has gradually emerged. There is still room for further efforts to expand domestic demand policies such as replacing old consumer goods with new ones next year. Liang Zhonghua also mentioned that this meeting clearly put forward "stabilizing the property market and stock market", which shows that the policy pays high attention to the property market and stock market. As an important signal to pay attention to the economy and expectations, the policies of the property market and stock market are also positive.Market News: South Korea's National Power Party discusses Yin Xiyue's stepping down in February or March.Bishuiyuan and others set up a new environmental protection technology company in Taiyuan. The enterprise search APP shows that Taiyuan Bishuiyuan Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. was established recently, with the legal representative of Liu Yanwei and the registered capital of 275 million yuan. Its business scope includes: urban greening management; Water pollution prevention and control services; Sales of new membrane materials; Public utilities management services, etc. Enterprise equity penetration shows that the company is jointly held by Bishuiyuan and others.


Yi Yatong once again won the bid for the service project of the supplier of the material supply platform of China Post Group Co., Ltd., and recently, Yi Yatong won the bid for the service project of the supplier of the material supply platform of China Post Group Co., Ltd. again. The winning categories in this project include 60 categories and 628 subcategories of commodities and related services such as grain and oil seasoning, kitchen and bathroom appliances, cleaning products, office equipment, home textile products and daily necessities; The service scope is China Post Group Co., Ltd. and its subordinate institutions at all levels, including the headquarters of the group company, branches in all provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government), delivery departments, holding subsidiaries, directly affiliated units and their internal or subordinate branches at all levels.Liang Zhonghua of Haitong Securities: The general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 has been determined, and the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst of Haitong Securities, said that judging from the statement of the meeting, the general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 is certain. Among them, "supernormal countercyclical adjustment" was put forward for the first time. Liang Zhonghua analyzed that "supernormal adjustment" may be different from QE (quantitative easing) in western countries, but refers to a traditional tool that has grown steadily in the past few years, making a breakthrough on the margin and playing the role of "keeping innovation" and "enriching and perfecting the policy toolbox". Judging from the policies that have been issued since September, this round of steady growth is a steady growth under the framework of "high quality". The high-quality framework will not change, and there will be no strong stimulation of flood irrigation. The meeting proposed to "implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy". Liang Zhonghua believes that next year's finance is expected to make further marginal efforts. It is expected that deficit ratio may improve. At present, 3.5%-4.0% is more likely, and the scale of special bonds may be marginally increased. Special government bonds supporting "duality" and "two innovations" will continue to be issued or increased. In addition, the debt-melting policy launched in November will also be the financial focus next year, and it is expected that special government bonds may be issued to supplement bank capital. In addition, the gradual interest rate cut will continue next year, and the structural monetary policy will continue to exert its strength. The meeting stressed that "it is necessary to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all directions." In this regard, Liang Zhonghua believes that compared with Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's statement of "expanding domestic demand with the focus on boosting consumption" in July, this meeting pays more attention to expanding domestic demand, and its support is expected to be further increased in the future. Since the beginning of this year, with the extra-long special national debt funds in place, the consumption of consumer goods trade-in policy has gradually emerged. There is still room for further efforts to expand domestic demand policies such as replacing old consumer goods with new ones next year. Liang Zhonghua also mentioned that this meeting clearly put forward "stabilizing the property market and stock market", which shows that the policy pays high attention to the property market and stock market. As an important signal to pay attention to the economy and expectations, the policies of the property market and stock market are also positive.Morgan Stanley published a research report that China's monetary policy changed from "prudent" to "moderately loose" to support market sentiment in 2025, and the real policy may focus on interest rate reform in 2025. Morgan Stanley said that the increased attention to reactivating the capital market should also help support market sentiment and keep the trading volume high in the short term. The bank also suggested that optimizing existing loans, more rational bank loan growth and interest rate reform may be the real focus in 2025. The bank believes that risk-based loan pricing may continue to recover, which will help to buffer the bank's net interest margin, even if some additional loan market quotations are lowered.


The Chinese side said that all factions in Syria should put the interests of the people first. On the 9th local time, the Security Council held closed-door consultations on the situation in Syria at the request of Russia. Fu Cong, Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations, said: We are paying close attention to this situation and hope that it will stabilize as soon as possible. We also hope to start an inclusive political process as soon as possible. At the same time, all factions and parties in Syria should put the interests of the people first.From next month, Wuhan will be exempted from the qualification examination fee for taxi drivers. It was learned from the Passenger Transport Development Center of Wuhan Municipal Transportation Bureau that from next year, Wuhan will no longer charge the qualification examination fee for cruising taxis and online booking taxi drivers.Low-priced stocks continued to be active in Shanzi Hi-Tech for 7 days and 6 boards. Low-priced stocks continued to be active in Shanzi Hi-Tech for 7 days and 6 boards. Huayuan Real Estate, Smith Barney and wenfeng shares had daily limit, while yongtai energy, Rong Sheng Development and Baotou Steel Co., Ltd. followed up.

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